| Comparing GDELT and ICEWS event data MD Ward, A Beger, J Cutler, M Dickenson, C Dorff, B Radford Manuscript 21 (1), 267-297, 2013 | 207 | 2013 |
| Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes MD Ward, A Beger Journal of Peace Research 54 (2), 141-156, 2017 | 58 | 2017 |
| Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change A Beger, CL Dorff, MD Ward Research & Politics 1 (3), 2053168014557511, 2014 | 50 | 2014 |
| Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models A Beger, CL Dorff, MD Ward International Journal of Forecasting 32 (1), 98-111, 2016 | 41 | 2016 |
| SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System. F Morstatter, A Galstyan, G Satyukov, D Benjamin, A Abeliuk, M Mirtaheri, ... IJCAI 2019, 6557-6559, 2019 | 27 | 2019 |
| Precision-Recall Curves A Beger https://ssrn.com/abstract=2765419, 2016 | 25 | 2016 |
| The split population logit (SPopLogit): Modeling measurement bias in binary data A Beger, JHR DeMeritt, W Hwang, WH Moore Available at SSRN 1773594, 2011 | 24 | 2011 |
| Hybrid forecasting of geopolitical events† DM Benjamin, F Morstatter, AE Abbas, A Abeliuk, P Atanasov, S Bennett, ... AI Magazine 44 (1), 112-128, 2023 | 23 | 2023 |
| PLOVER and POLECAT: A new political event ontology and dataset A Halterman, B Bagozzi, A Beger, P Schrodt, G Scraborough International Studies Association Conference Paper, 2023 | 20 | 2023 |
| Examining repressive and oppressive state violence using the Ill-Treatment and Torture data A Beger, D Hill Jr Conflict Management and Peace Science 36 (6), 626-644, 2019 | 20 | 2019 |
| Reassessing the role of theory and machine learning in forecasting civil conflict A Beger, RK Morgan, MD Ward Journal of Conflict Resolution 65 (7-8), 1405-1426, 2021 | 15 | 2021 |
| Splitting it up: The spduration split-population duration regression package for time-varying covariates A Beger, DW Hill, NW Metternich, S Minhas, MD Ward The R Journal 9 (2), 474-486, 2017 | 14 | 2017 |
| Explainable models for forecasting the emergence of political instability E Baillie, PDL Howe, A Perfors, T Miller, Y Kashima, A Beger Plos one 16 (7), e0254350, 2021 | 12 | 2021 |
| Varieties of forecasts: Predicting adverse regime transitions R Morgan, A Beger, A Glynn V-Dem Working Paper 89, 2019 | 11 | 2019 |
| Creating custom event data without dictionaries: A bag-of-tricks A Halterman, PA Schrodt, A Beger, BE Bagozzi, GI Scarborough arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.01331, 2023 | 9 | 2023 |
| Predicting the intensity and location of violence in war A Beger Florida State University, 2012 | 8 | 2012 |
| BayesPostEst: An r package to generate postestimation quantities for Bayesian MCMC estimation S Scogin, J Karreth, A Beger, R Williams Journal of Open Source Software 4 (42), 1722, 2019 | 7 | 2019 |
| Looking under the hood: Ethnic groups, parity, and civil war A Beger, WH Moore Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2007 | 7 | 2007 |
| Assessing Amazon Turker and automated machine forecasts in the Hybrid Forecasting Competition A Beger, MD Ward 7th Annual Asian Political Methodology Conference, 5-6, 2019 | 5 | 2019 |
| Using front lines to predict deaths in the Bosnian civil war A Beger Available at SSRN 2026464, 2012 | 5 | 2012 |
Michael D. WardProfessor of Political Science, Duke UniversityVerified email at duke.edu
